Job loss and COVID-19: do remote work, automation and tasks at work matter?
English
Information is gathered from other international organizations that promote skills development and the transition from education and training to work. The Interagency Group on Technical and Vocational Education and Training (IAG-TVET) was established in 2009 to share research findings, coordinate joint research endeavours, and improve collaboration among organizations working at the international and national levels.
Anticipating and matching skills needs
Anticipating and building skills for the future is essential to a rapidly changing labour market. This applies to changes in the types and levels of skills needed as well as in occupational and technical areas. Effective methods to anticipate future skills needs and avoid potential mismatches include: sustained dialogue between employers and trainers, coordination across government institutions, labour market information systems, employment services and performance reviews of training institutions.
Digital skills
The world of work is undergoing a substantial transformation due to new forces. In particular, technological advances, such as AI, automation and robotics, have produced numerous new opportunities, but also given rise to urgent challenges. While new jobs are constantly being created with the emergence of the digital economy, many jobs are at risk of becoming obsolete. Digital innovations will rapidly change the demand for skills, thereby creating a wider skills gap that has the potential to hold back economic growth. Equipping people with basic or advanced digital skills promises to prepare them for unprecedented job opportunities in the digital economy. This will lead to innovation, higher productivity and competitiveness, as well as expanding markets, access to work and entrepreneurship opportunities.
Other knowledge products
Research papers
Working papers, reports, and other publications from international organizations, academic institutions and bilateral agencies. Research findings to stimulate informed debate on skills, employment and productivity issues.
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have adverse and non-uniform impacts on future employment prospects for different job positions in the EU. We investigate two possible determinants of the variation of future employment loss due to the pandemic: the potential of a job to be carried out ‘from home’ and the risk of being substituted by automation.
Using unique data provided by a dedicated COVID-19 impact scenario carried out for the latest Cedefop skills forecast, we find that less remote working potential and more automation risk are related to larger expected losses in employment due to COVID-19 for different countries and occupations, but not industries. These links are stronger in the short-term future for different countries, but for occupations they seem to strengthen in the years after 2022, reflecting the removal of protective measures taken by EU governments as the world recovers from the pandemic. Relating expected employment loss to the intensity of performing different tasks at work, we find that such loss is expected to be less for countries and occupations in which social, intellectual and information and communication technology (ICT) skills are important for a larger proportion of jobs.